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Tsys Near Highs, Projected Rate Hike Holds Steady

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures drifting near session highs over the last couple hours after headlines from Fed Daly, Mester and Barr leaned toward the dovish side of balanced: Barr "more work to do but close to the end" earlier while Daly said "risks becoming less unbalanced, fed decisions getting harder, more data reliant".
  • Curves mixed but generally steeper after the bell, 2s10s currently +2.823 at -86.228, despite over 20,000 TUU3 block sales at various prices this morning.
  • Currently, Sep'23 10Y futures are +15.5 at 111-05 vs. 111-08 high, initial technical resistance at 111-15, July 6 high.
  • Projected rate hike expectations holding slightly higher to this mornings levels: July 26 FOMC is 89% w/ implied rate of +22.2bp to 5.298%. September fully pricing hike w/ cumulative of +29bp at 5.365%, November cumulative of 34.4bp at 5.42%, December cumulative 29bp at 5.366%. Fed terminal holding at 5.415% in Nov'23.
  • Little in the way of data and scheduled Fed speakers Tuesday, focus remains on Wednesday's CPI release.
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