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Free AccessTsys Near Highs, Weaker ISMs Outweigh Surge in Oil
- Tsys near midday highs after the bell, wide range for the week opener as lower than expected ISM data leavened concerns over higher inflation tied to a surge in crude prices overnight.
- Tsys gapped lower Sunday evening after OPEC+ announced over 1M bbl/day production cut, surprising markets and underscoring inflation concerns (read: prospect for renewed rate hikes).
- Tsy futures gapped higher after lower than expected ISMs quashed the oil-tied inflation/rate hike concerns. Drops in ISM sub-indices across the board (with the exceptions of production and customer inventories), with every one in below-50 territory. New orders, prices paid, and Employment down sharply.
- Fed funds implied hike for May'23 at 16.2bp, Jun'23 +13.8bp cumulative at 4.954% late. Meanwhile, projected rate cuts later in the year gained: Sep'23 cumulative -14.7bp (-11.1bp earlier) to 4.674%, to -50.4bp (40.6 earlier) for Dec'23 at 4.312.
- Front month Jun'23 10Y futures bounced back to March 27 level 115-21.5 (+24) , 115-16 after the bell, 10Y yield dropped to 3.3983% low vs. 3.4226% late. TYM3 through March 28 high resistance (115-07.5) put focus on key resistance of 116-06+/117-01+ High Mar 27 / High Mar 24 and bull trigger.
- Markets may be more volatile this week due to thin liquidity w/ early Friday close ahead Easter weekend/spring holiday for some. Nevertheless, March employment data scheduled for Friday release (+240k est vs. +310k prior); ADP private employ this Wednesday (+210k est vs. +242k prior).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.