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Tsys Near Lows Despite Soft Data, 10Y Yield Taps 4.5622% High

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures trading mixed after the bell, inside a moderate range on decent volumes (TYZ3>1.4M). Tsys followed Bunds higher overnight after slightly larger than expected German supply reduction annc (DFA).
  • Rates extended gains after a flurry of morning data: New Home Sales came out slower than expected: 675k vs. 699k est; prior up-revised to 739k from 714k, MoM -8.7% vs. -2.2% est. Conf. Lower than expected Consumer Confidence: 103 vs. 105.5 est.
  • Little reaction from Tsy futures after the $48B 2Y note auction (91282CJB8) trades on the screws: 5.085% high yield vs. 5.085% WI; 2.73x bid-to-cover vs. 2.94x prior.
  • Current Dec'23 10Y futures -.5 at 108-05 vs. 108-17 high, 10YY back near highs after the close at 4.5499% vs. 4.5622% (new 16Y high). Technical resistance just above at 109-03/109-17+ (Low Sep 13 / 20-day EMA), while round number support holds below at 108-00 after falling to 108-00.5 early overnight.
  • Curves rebounded in the second half: 3M10Y +2.394 at -92.616, 2Y10Y +1.638 at -57.943.
  • Focus on Wednesday Data Calendar: Durables, Cap Goods, 2Y FRN/5Y Note Sale. MN Fed president Kashkari is scheduled to speak on CNBC at 0800ET.
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