NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

Machine Orders Data Points To Slow And Gradual Recovery

Unemployment Steady; Projected to Rise Gradually

MNI: EUROZONE MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.5%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Tsys Near Wk Highs Into Month/Quarter End

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are pushing late session highs, volumes climbing into the month/quarter end, front month 10Y futures traded over 300k from 114-28 to 115-01 high (+14.5), 10Y yield down to 3.4752% low.
  • Little market reaction to NY Fed Williams' economic outlook speech to the Housatonic Community College in Connecticut. "I expect inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent this year, before moving closer to our longer-run goal in the next two years," he added, slightly increasing his forecast a quarter point since mid-February.
  • Fed speakers still scheduled for this evening: Fed Gov Cook, eco outlook/mon-pol, Midwest Economics Assn at 1745ET; Fed Gov Waller re: Phillips curve, text, no Q&A at 2200ET.
  • Yield curves flat to mildly steeper (2s10s -57.487 +.205), well off session lows as Jun'23 2Y futures making new late session highs (TUM3 103-08, +3.0), 2Y yield marks session low of 4.0459%.
  • Implied May Fed hike pricing fell from 16bp to 13.5bp after that soft Feb PCE report, but it's since bounced back to 14.4bp. The soft services ex-housing number is key to any Fed pause narrative but as we noted earlier, the April 28 PCE release will carry far more weight for FOMC Fed going into the May 3 decision. Let alone the rest of the year, for which 55bp of cuts from peak are priced (basically unchanged from pre-data).
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