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Tsys Nearing Technical Support Ahead FOMC, Month End, May Day Holiday

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures gap lower after higher than expected Employment Cost Index (1.2% vs. 1.0% est, 0.9% prior), holding lower levels after much lower than expected MNI Chicago PMI comes out at 37.9 vs 45.0 est (41.4 prior).
  • Broader macro considerations will have to wait until Thursday’s Q1 preliminary release for productivity. Strong productivity gains have offset labor costs in recent quarters but consensus sees productivity growth tailing off to 0.7% annualized in Q1.
  • Futures extended lows into the close, Jun'24 10Y marking 107-13 low, still above initial technical support at 107-04 (Low Apr 25).
  • Focus turns to Wednesday's FOMC announcement with Chairman Powell discussing guidance 30 minutes later. That said May Day holiday in Europe tomorrow, closings inconsistent across markets and asset classes (Eurex closed, but not ICE: Gilts re: FI) - that may be exacerbated by month end squaring.
  • Projected rate cut pricing continued to recede vs. morning levels: May 2024 -1.0 vs. -2.1% earlier w/ cumulative -0.3bp at 5.326%; June 2024 at -6.6% vs. -10.6% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.9bp at 5.310%, July'24 cumulative at -5.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -12.6bp.
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