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Recovers From Recent Lows


(U1) Clears The 61.8% Retracement

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A quiet re-open for T-Notes after the contract ultimately went out closer to mid-range on Thursday, after working back from best levels into the close. The contract last trades -0-03 at 134-05. A reminder that cash Tsys will be closed during Asia-Pac hours owing to the previously flagged Japanese holiday.

  • The curve saw some light bull flattening on Thursday, with the major cash Tsy benchmarks finishing ~1.0-2.0bp richer. This came after the space unwound much of the richening witnessed early in the week come the end of Wednesday's session.
  • An uptick in the latest round of initial jobless claims data (coupled with higher than expected continuing claims), alongside feedthrough from Bunds as the ECB press conference got underway, supported Tsys during the NY morning after an initial (brief) move lower in the wake of the release of the ECB decision/statement.
  • 10-Year TIPS supply was well received, which supported breakevens and weighed on real yields.
  • A block sale in UXY futures (-6.197) helped the space away from firmest levels during the second half of NY dealing.
  • A deluge of fed funds futures buying (lodged via blocks) and buying of the 2EZ1 98.50 puts (on screen and via block, with ~40K lots lifted on the day) provided the highlights in the short end.
  • Flash Markit PMI data headlines the local docket during NY hours, while the Asia-Pac docket looks particularly sparse.