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US TSYS: Tsys Reversing Late Tuesday's Rebound, Jobless Claims, Tsy Supply Ahead

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries are reversing late Tuesday's bounce, futures are at or near overnight lows on very light post-holiday volumes, TYH5 under 72k so far.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-11.5 last (-6.5) vs. 108-11 low tapped a couple times overnight. Still above Tuesday's 108-09.5 low. Initial technical support at 108-00 (1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing).
  • Tsy 10Y yield tapped 4.6189% high (+.0302), highest since late May. Curves steeper, 2s10s +1.187 at 26.195, 5s30s +1.148.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly lower vs. late Tuesday (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 at -11.7bp (-12.6bp), May'25 -16.0bp (-17.2bp), Jun'25 -23.7bp (-24.6bp).
  • Session data limited to weekly jobless claims (223k est vs. 220k prior) and continuing claims (1.881m est vs. 1.874m prior) at 0830ET.
  • Treasury auctions wrap up the week's supply with $75B 4W & $70B 8W bills at 1130ET, $64B 17W bills and $44B 7Y note auction (91282CMC2) at 1300ET. 
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  • Treasuries are reversing late Tuesday's bounce, futures are at or near overnight lows on very light post-holiday volumes, TYH5 under 72k so far.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-11.5 last (-6.5) vs. 108-11 low tapped a couple times overnight. Still above Tuesday's 108-09.5 low. Initial technical support at 108-00 (1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing).
  • Tsy 10Y yield tapped 4.6189% high (+.0302), highest since late May. Curves steeper, 2s10s +1.187 at 26.195, 5s30s +1.148.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly lower vs. late Tuesday (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 at -11.7bp (-12.6bp), May'25 -16.0bp (-17.2bp), Jun'25 -23.7bp (-24.6bp).
  • Session data limited to weekly jobless claims (223k est vs. 220k prior) and continuing claims (1.881m est vs. 1.874m prior) at 0830ET.
  • Treasury auctions wrap up the week's supply with $75B 4W & $70B 8W bills at 1130ET, $64B 17W bills and $44B 7Y note auction (91282CMC2) at 1300ET.