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US TSY FLOWS: Tsys see-sawed in lower range all day, off lows by the bell as
equities continued to recover from last week's shellacking. Multiple factors at
play for the apparent risk-on move include month-end rebalancing flow.
- Data picked up today: w/stronger than exp Oct ADP private payrolls (+227k;
smaller than anticipated Sep down-revision to +218k), Oct MNI Chicago PMI little
weaker than expected (58.4 vs. 60.0 est).
- Decent volume belied rather subdued trade w/many close to sidelines ahead
Fri's jobs report, next week's midterm elections and FOMC (no change expected
- Two-way flow w/better sellers on net, prop and fast$ acct buying intermediates
late morning. Modest corp deal-tied hedging, swap-tied selling in short to
intermediates, decent two-way in 5s.
- Tsy futures nearly extended session lows late on pick-up of month
end/rebalancing flow (TYZ volume gained over 125k in last 10 minutes), lrg 15
FVZ Block buy 112-13. Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 100-00 (2.873%), 5Y 99-15.5 (2.985%),
10Y 97-21.5 (3.151%), 30Y 92-21.5 (3.392%).