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Global Macro
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessBoC Data Watch
MNI BRIEF: EU Auditors Warn On NGEU Absorption Delays
MNI BoC Preview, Sep'24: Low Bar For A Third Cut Has Been Met
Tsys Track EGBs After Soft PMIs, NY Fed Williams Resumes Fed Speak
- Cash Tsys firmer at the moment -- following EGBs lead after mildly softer European PMI data -- with the exception of UK Flash Services PMI (52.7 vs. 51.0 exp).
- Tsys inside relatively narrow overnight range and near Thursday's midday highs. March'24 10Y futures (TYH4) currently +2 at 112-18.5 vs. 112-22 intraday high, moderate volume at just over 370k. Focus on technical resistance at 112-28.5 (1.618 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing). Initial support well below at 111-09+ (High Dec 7 and a recent breakout level).
- Projected rate cuts for early 2024 mostly softer vs. Thursday highs with the short end futures weaker: January 2024 cumulative -3bp at 5.302%, March 2024 chance of rate cut climbs to -76.5% vs. -81.9% late Thursday w/ cumulative of -22.1bp at 5.111%, May 2024 chances -92.3% after fully pricing in the first cut yesterday with cumulative -44.5bp at 4.888%, while June'24 climbs to -99.2% vs. -96.9%, cumulative -69.5bp at 4.637%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
- Friday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Returns with NY Fed President John Williams on CNBC Squawk at 0830ET, IP/Cap-U at 0915ET, S&P PMI at 0945ET, TIC Flow at 1600ET.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.