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Tsys Track EGBs After Soft PMIs, NY Fed Williams Resumes Fed Speak

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys firmer at the moment -- following EGBs lead after mildly softer European PMI data -- with the exception of UK Flash Services PMI (52.7 vs. 51.0 exp).
  • Tsys inside relatively narrow overnight range and near Thursday's midday highs. March'24 10Y futures (TYH4) currently +2 at 112-18.5 vs. 112-22 intraday high, moderate volume at just over 370k. Focus on technical resistance at 112-28.5 (1.618 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing). Initial support well below at 111-09+ (High Dec 7 and a recent breakout level).
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 mostly softer vs. Thursday highs with the short end futures weaker: January 2024 cumulative -3bp at 5.302%, March 2024 chance of rate cut climbs to -76.5% vs. -81.9% late Thursday w/ cumulative of -22.1bp at 5.111%, May 2024 chances -92.3% after fully pricing in the first cut yesterday with cumulative -44.5bp at 4.888%, while June'24 climbs to -99.2% vs. -96.9%, cumulative -69.5bp at 4.637%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • Friday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Returns with NY Fed President John Williams on CNBC Squawk at 0830ET, IP/Cap-U at 0915ET, S&P PMI at 0945ET, TIC Flow at 1600ET.
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