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Tsys Weaker, Little New From Fed Chairman Powell Citing Forecasts

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures hold modestly weaker in late trade, near the middle of a relatively narrow session range after mirroring moves in German Bunds in the first half. Not much coverage and little market reaction to Fed Chairman Powell meeting with the Republican Study Committee for lunch, expecting one more hike this year citing Fed forecasts.
  • Meanwhile, futures traded weaker after the $35B 7Y note auction (91282CGS4) tailed 1.1bp: 3.626% high yield vs. 3.615% WI; 2.39x bid-to-cover vs. 2.49x last month. Treasury and corporate bond-tied hedging contributed to the range while yield curves see-sawed off steeper levels to marginally flatter: 2s10s -.379 at -52.280 vs. -47.063 high.
  • From a technical perspective 10Y futures prices remain below last Friday’s high of 117-01+. Price action on Mar 24 is a potential reversal signal - a shooting star candle pattern. It suggests scope for further weakness towards the 20-day EMA, at 114-05. The average represents a key support ahead of 113-26, the Mar 22 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 117-01+.
  • Items in focus for Thursday: Weekly Claims, GDP and Personal Consumption at 0830ET. Afternoon Fed Speakers: Richmond Fed Barkin and Boston Fed Collins will answer questions at separate events at 1445ET, MN Fed Kashkari will speak at a town hall event, moderated Q&A at 1300ET.
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