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Tsys Weaker/Near Support After Strong PPI Print

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures holding weaker after the bell - off lows after breaching technical support following this morning's higher than expected PPI.
  • Headline final demand PPI printed at its highest SA monthly rate since August '23 in January, with the unrounded 0.33% M/M print easily overshooting the 0.1% M/M consensus (vs -0.15% prior after Wednesday's revisions).
  • The core metrics overshot consensus by a larger margin. PPI ex-food and energy at 0.50% M/M (vs 0.1% cons, -0.06% prior) brings the 3mma annualized rate to 2.42% (vs 0.56% prior). Perhaps the one encouraging factor is the 6mma annualized rate, which still moderated a touch to 1.61% (vs 1.75% prior).
  • Lower than expected: Housing Starts (1.331M, 1.460M est, prior up-revised to 1.562M from 1.460M) and Building Permits (1.470M vs. 1.512M est).
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently -14.5 at 109-23, after breaching initial technical support of 109-17 (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb) vs. 109-15 intraday low. Curves bear flatten: 2s10s -1.567 at -36.176, 10Y yield +.0669 at 4.2969%.
  • Slow start to the week ahead, no data Monday for Presidents Day holiday (rates open for shortened hours on Globex). Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity and Leading Index (-0.1%, -0.3%). Treasury supply: $79B 13W, $70B 26W and $46B 52W bill auctions.
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