TTF Eases Back After 5€/MWh Surge Higher on Friday

TTF pulls back after seeing a 5€/MWh rally on Friday driven by tighter supply concern on increasing competition for LNG supplies amid warm weather in both Europe and Asia. The European gas market has seen volatile trading this month with the supply concerns set against the high natural gas storage levels and subdued industrial demand.

• TTF JUL 23 down -3.1% at 31.05€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2% at 44.92€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.8% at 45€/MWh
• The TTF surge higher on Friday has brought the US netbacks back in favour of spot flows to Europe over Asia according to Bloomberg and has stopped out a lot of traders who were shorting this market according to Energy Aspects.
• The extension of several outages in Norway were also supportive with pipeline imports today up slightly to 244.9mcm/d today as field and processing plant maintenance continues throughout this week.
• Total European LNG sendout averaged around 370mcm/d last week with imports down slightly from the high levels seen in May. European LNG imports could be impacted by lower US exports due to maintenance at Sabine Pass and an unplanned halt to Norway’s Hammerfest LNG until 14 June.
• European gas injections remain below normal but total storage is now up to 71.87% full on 10 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 54.75%.
• The European weather forecast still shows above normal temperatures across central and NW Europe throughout the next two weeks but with cooler temperatures in southern areas.
• The planned annual maintenance of Turkstream ended on Monday morning according to Bulgartransgaz. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today up to 42.3mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 64.0mcm/d.