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TTF Edges Down as Warm European Weather Continues into Jan

NATURAL GAS

European natural gas is holding relatively steady this week with TTF front month trading in the 76€/MWh to 86€/MWh range.

    • TTF FEB 23 down -3.5% at 82.69€/MWh
  • Warm weather in Europe for the coming week is balanced against the potential for a drop in temperatures back towards normal in the second week of January.
  • LNG import flows into Europe remain lower than earlier in December at around 420mcm/d with gas spreads currently just favouring supply to Asia over Europe. Spreads from March onwards show Europe at a premium to Asia.
  • Norwegian supply is stable with nominations today at 335.4mcm/d while gas flows through Ukraine are unchanged at 42.4mcm/d.
  • The warm weather has enabled gas storage to hold unchanged since 20 Dec after the high withdrawal rates earlier in the month. Total stocks were at 83.19% on 28 Dec compared to the five year average of 70.8% at this time of year.

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