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TTF Edges Higher

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is edging higher today amid persisting fears of potential supply disruptions due to the conflict in Israel. Latest weather forecasts for Northwest Europe have been revised down to below the seasonal norm for early November, supporting heating demand.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 1.2% at 50.5€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 2.1% at 55.27€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.9% at 53.1€/MWh
    • TTF Q124-NOV 23 up 0.6€/MWh at 4.77€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe have been revised up for the next week, before forecasts have been revised down lower with temperatures falling below the seasonal norm.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up at 314.70mcm/d, compared with 302.4mcm/d yesterday. Troll and Oseberg output is still curbed.
  • End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 99% full on 24 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%.
  • LNG flows to North West Europe were in line with the day before at 252.87mcm/d on 24 October, up by 52% from the 30-day moving average.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday rose back up to 249.19k.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024.
  • The US LNG netback to Europe is currently $12.67/MMBtu for December, up from $12.42/MMBtu.
  • The US LNG netback to Asia is currently $13.59/MMBtu for December, up from $13.55/MMBtu.
    • JKM Nov 23 down -1.2% at 17.81$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -0.1$/mmbtu at 2.18$/mmbtu
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