TTF Edges Lower Despite Higher Demand Next Week

TTF has opened slightly lower today but is still holding onto small gains this week driven by cooler weather for NW Europe next week.

• TTF MAR 23 down -1.2% at 58.8€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -0.9% at 61€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.3% at 69€/MWh
• Price gains due to the higher heating demand are limited by the healthy gas storage levels and with optimism of progress towards a restart of US Freeport LNG to help with LNG supplies. Market expectations is for a restart in February, but full operations will take longer with Rystad estimating 60 days from restart to 100% utilization.
• LNG net imports flows to Europe averaged 446mcm/d in the last week of Jan but the return of a colder spell next week could add more supply pressure. Weather forecasts show temperatures falling back below normal in NW Europe from around 6 Jan.

• Total EU gas storage is at 72.09% according to GIE data from 31 Jan with the withdrawal rate near the seasonal normal. Germany is at 78.6%, Italy at 71.12, France at 64.3% and Netherlands at 68.49%.
• Norwegian imports are today nominated slightly higher at 326.8mcm/d as field return from outages in late January. Gas transit flows through Ukraine at today expected at 29.5mcm/d.