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TTF Extends Decline as Warm Weather Delays Heating Season

NATURAL GAS

TTF continues to drift lower with no sign of significant cold weather for NW Europe in the current forecast. Temperatures remain above normal for the full two week forecast and the latest forecast suggests a mild November for Europe.

    • TTF DEC 22 down -3.5% at 119€/MWh
  • The UK Met Office is forecasting the likelihood of a colder three month period (Nov-Jan) in UK overall is slightly greater than normal.
  • Small volumes have started flowing through the new Baltic pipeline, but the increase is offset by a reduction in existing pipeline flows so has not increased overall supplies to Europe. Nominations for total supplies from Norway into Europe are relatively unchanged at 306.3mcm/d.
  • Gas storage remains well stocked due to healthy LNG supplies and the delayed start to the winter heating season. Data for Oct 30 shows total European storage is at 94.68%.
  • Russian gas transit through Ukraine via Sudzha is steady at 42.4mcm/d.

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