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NATGAS: TTF Extends Decline to Lowest Since Jan. 20

NATGAS
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TTF front month has fallen to the lowest since Jan. 20 as warmer weather later this week adds to bearish sentiment from potential Ukraine peace talks.

  • Rising temperatures in NW and central Europe in the coming days and stronger wind generation early next week will help to ease gas demand pressures. Temperatures are forecast at or above normal through the end of the month into the start of March.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are almost unchanged on the day at 329.8mcm/d with no planned field or plant outages until late Feb.
  • European gas storage has fallen to 44.05% full on Feb. 16, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 53.5% with withdrawal rates mostly above normal so far in February.
  • European LNG sendout was 405mcm/d on Feb. 16 compared to an average of 447mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.3mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF futures aggregate trading volume was down at 310k on Feb. 17.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 1.9% at 47.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.8% at 47.25€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 2.3% at 44.38€/MWh
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TTF front month has fallen to the lowest since Jan. 20 as warmer weather later this week adds to bearish sentiment from potential Ukraine peace talks.

  • Rising temperatures in NW and central Europe in the coming days and stronger wind generation early next week will help to ease gas demand pressures. Temperatures are forecast at or above normal through the end of the month into the start of March.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are almost unchanged on the day at 329.8mcm/d with no planned field or plant outages until late Feb.
  • European gas storage has fallen to 44.05% full on Feb. 16, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 53.5% with withdrawal rates mostly above normal so far in February.
  • European LNG sendout was 405mcm/d on Feb. 16 compared to an average of 447mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.3mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF futures aggregate trading volume was down at 310k on Feb. 17.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 1.9% at 47.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.8% at 47.25€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 2.3% at 44.38€/MWh