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NATGAS: TTF Extends Gains on Weather and Supply Risk

NATGAS
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TTF is extending gains towards the high of €49.55/MWh on Nov. 22 with the forecast of colder weather and as gas transit via Ukraine dips ahead of the expected halt.

  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at down to 40.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to dip below normal later this week although could recover back towards normal next week. Forecaster Maxar expects a colder than normal January for NW Europe and the Nordics with possible weaker wind levels, according to Bloomberg.
  • European gas storage was 73.17% full on Dec. 29, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 77.5% with withdrawal rates holding above normal.
  • NW European LNG sendout was 167mcm/d on Dec. 29 compared to an average of 183mcm/d over the previous week and around 192mcm/d this time last year.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are 338.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 10.6mcm/d this week including the unplanned capacity reduction at Kollsnes due to a compressor failure until Jan. 7.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is relatively unchanged at 53.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 218k on Dec. 30.
    • TTF FEB 25 up 2% at 48.81€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 48.08€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 up 1.7% at 44.2€/MWh
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TTF is extending gains towards the high of €49.55/MWh on Nov. 22 with the forecast of colder weather and as gas transit via Ukraine dips ahead of the expected halt.

  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at down to 40.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to dip below normal later this week although could recover back towards normal next week. Forecaster Maxar expects a colder than normal January for NW Europe and the Nordics with possible weaker wind levels, according to Bloomberg.
  • European gas storage was 73.17% full on Dec. 29, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 77.5% with withdrawal rates holding above normal.
  • NW European LNG sendout was 167mcm/d on Dec. 29 compared to an average of 183mcm/d over the previous week and around 192mcm/d this time last year.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are 338.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 10.6mcm/d this week including the unplanned capacity reduction at Kollsnes due to a compressor failure until Jan. 7.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is relatively unchanged at 53.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 218k on Dec. 30.
    • TTF FEB 25 up 2% at 48.81€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 48.08€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 up 1.7% at 44.2€/MWh