TTF Extends Rally on Supply Risks

TTF front month extends gains after a rally yesterday with risks to Russian supplies and warm weather in southern Europe offsetting high storage levels and low industrial demand.

• TTF AUG 23 up 2.8% at 31.41€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.1% at 50.41€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.6% at 52.7€/MWh
• Despite rising tension in Ukraine no impact has been seen on Russian pipeline gas flows via Sudzha in Ukraine with today nominated at 42.4mcm/d.
• Competition for LNG supplies from Asia remains an upside risk especially into next winter. Demand from Asia buyers remains muted with little interest in additional spot purchases from Japan or China although there is “relative tightness” in Asia amid Australian LNG export maintenance according to Energy Aspects.
• The latest two week weather forecast is unchanged with heat remaining in southern Europe despite a slight dip later this week. Current below normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to return near to normal by the weekend.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up slightly to the highest since early April at 341.1mcm/d.
• LNG sendout to Europe dipped down to 311mcm/d on 23 July from as high as 382mcm/d mid last week as NW European flows fall back below levels seen this time last year.
• Total European gas in store is up to 83.74% full on 23 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 68.5% with injection rates holding above normal.