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TTF Falls Amid Easing Geopolitical Risk Premium and Warmer Weather

NATGAS

TTF extends the fall from late last week with a shift in temperatures expected later this week adding to the reduction in the geopolitical risk premium linked to Middle East supply fears after an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran last week was downplayed.

    • TTF MAY 24 down 2.8% at 29.9€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 down 2.8% at 30.44€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 2.4% at 35.15€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.8% at 32.65€/MWh
  • Colder than normal temperatures are expected in NW and central Europe in the coming days before recovering towards normal or just above from around April 27.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down to 335.8mcm/d after seeing a recovery up to nearly 445mcm/d on April 20. Planned maintenance outages are expected to increase during this week to a peak of 101mcm/d offline on Apil 27 according to Gassco.
  • European LNG sendout was at 305mcm/d on Apr. 19 after falling just below 300mcm/d the previous day compared to a high of 360mcm/d early last week.
  • European gas storage was unchanged at 62.06% full on Apr. 20 according to GIE compared to the seasonal five year average of 44.1%. Net storage levels have seen little change since April 17 after the strong injections seen in the first half of the month.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.1mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 69.7mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 341k on Apr. 19.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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