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TTF Falls Back Amid Steady Supply and Warmer Weather

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TTF reverses direction back to negative on the day after earlier gains taking front month up to a high of €29.32/MWh. Prices have eased back with the latest weather forecast shifting slightly warmer into May and with the repair to Hammerfest LNG. A drop in Norwegian pipeline supply due to maintenance looks to be offset up slightly higher LNG sendout.

  • The gas leak at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG plant that caused an evacuation this week has been repaired according to Equinor but will remain shut until 1000 GMT Friday as initially communicated.
  • The US Freeport LNG export terminal is showing a partial recovery in feedgas supplies since April 21 and exported a partial cargo as the first shipment since April 11 according to Bloomberg.
  • The front TTF contract is pulling back faster than the remainder of the summer taking the TTF May 24 – Q3 24 spread from -0.5/MWh on April 17 back to -€0.7/MWh today.
  • The Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread is also widening from around -€5.0/MWh early last week to -€5.7/MWh.
    • TTF MAY 24 down 0.5% at 28.28€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 down 0.8% at 28.86€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.7% at 33.63€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 31.68€/MWh
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TTF reverses direction back to negative on the day after earlier gains taking front month up to a high of €29.32/MWh. Prices have eased back with the latest weather forecast shifting slightly warmer into May and with the repair to Hammerfest LNG. A drop in Norwegian pipeline supply due to maintenance looks to be offset up slightly higher LNG sendout.

  • The gas leak at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG plant that caused an evacuation this week has been repaired according to Equinor but will remain shut until 1000 GMT Friday as initially communicated.
  • The US Freeport LNG export terminal is showing a partial recovery in feedgas supplies since April 21 and exported a partial cargo as the first shipment since April 11 according to Bloomberg.
  • The front TTF contract is pulling back faster than the remainder of the summer taking the TTF May 24 – Q3 24 spread from -0.5/MWh on April 17 back to -€0.7/MWh today.
  • The Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread is also widening from around -€5.0/MWh early last week to -€5.7/MWh.
    • TTF MAY 24 down 0.5% at 28.28€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 down 0.8% at 28.86€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.7% at 33.63€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 31.68€/MWh