TTF Falls Back From Peak of Nearly 50€/MWh Yesterday

TTF front month has fallen back from a peak of nearly 50€/MWh yesterday following the announced Dutch government plan to permanently shut down the Groningen gas field in October ahead of the previous latest closure data by Oct 2024.

• TTF JUL 23 down -10.7% at 36.76€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -7.2% at 52.13€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -7% at 50.1€/MWh
• TTF was already surging higher driven by tighter market concerns and short covering on the back of extended Norway maintenance and warm weather in Europe expected to increase cooling demand. The European supply fears have driven TTF above JKM to help maintain spot LNG supplies to Europe.
• The latest weather forecast still shows above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe this week extending throughout most of the two week forecast period. Near normal temperatures in southern regions with also move warmer next week.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are holding at 256.1mcm/d today up from a low of 210mcm/d on 1 June but with works at several plants and fields this week extended into July.
• Total European LNG sendout is back over 400mcm/d this week with strong supplies despite the lower US LNG exports this month due to Sabine Pass LNG maintenance.
• Total European total storage was up to 72.91% full on 14 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 56.27%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.8mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 67.1mcm/d.