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TTF Falls on Supply Optimism with Demand Uncertainty

NATURAL GAS

TTF declines with further signs of progress towards a Freeport LNG restart, high storage levels and mixed weather forecasts for NW Europe. Despite the fall front month is still trading above the low of 51.85€/MWh from 27 Jan.

  • Front month and Sum23 are both down over 5% today with optimism for LNG supplies and storage levels expected to finish the winter heating season above normal.
  • Freeport LNG is still not expected to restart until later in Feb and with full operation not expected until a month or two later. No significant gas pipeline flows have yet been seen flowing to the terminal, but vessel tracking shows several tanker waiting outside the port.
  • The latest operational weather forecast runs suggest the cold spell in NW Europe next week could be short lived with a return towards normal in the middle of Feb.
    • TTF MAR 23 down -5.8% at 56.06€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 down -5% at 58.5€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -3.4% at 66.86€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2% at 61.5€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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