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NATGAS: TTF Falls to Lowest Since Dec. 20 Amid Mild March Forecast

NATGAS
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TTF extends the trend down to the lowest since Dec. 20 as warm temperatures forecast for March ease heating demand pressure towards the end of the winter storage withdrawal season. Ukraine peace negotiations provide a reduced supply risk sentiment although Ukraine gas import requirements are supportive.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast below normal through this weekend but expected to recover back above normal next week and into the second week of the outlook.
  • Net withdrawal rates are near normal as total stores fall to 40.30% full on Feb. 24, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 51.4%.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated relatively unchanged at 328.7mcm/d. Gassco shows an unplanned capacity reduction of 5.4mcm/d at Skarv today due to corrective maintenance and with a planned Oseberg outage of 5.5mcm/d starting tomorrow.
  • European LNG sendout rose to 449mcm/d Feb. 24 compared to around 375mm/d over the weekend and an average of 428mcm/d so far this month.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF futures aggregate trading volume was 445k on Feb. 25.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 1% at 43.86€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 44.15€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 1% at 42.5€/MWh
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TTF extends the trend down to the lowest since Dec. 20 as warm temperatures forecast for March ease heating demand pressure towards the end of the winter storage withdrawal season. Ukraine peace negotiations provide a reduced supply risk sentiment although Ukraine gas import requirements are supportive.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast below normal through this weekend but expected to recover back above normal next week and into the second week of the outlook.
  • Net withdrawal rates are near normal as total stores fall to 40.30% full on Feb. 24, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 51.4%.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated relatively unchanged at 328.7mcm/d. Gassco shows an unplanned capacity reduction of 5.4mcm/d at Skarv today due to corrective maintenance and with a planned Oseberg outage of 5.5mcm/d starting tomorrow.
  • European LNG sendout rose to 449mcm/d Feb. 24 compared to around 375mm/d over the weekend and an average of 428mcm/d so far this month.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF futures aggregate trading volume was 445k on Feb. 25.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 1% at 43.86€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 44.15€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 1% at 42.5€/MWh