TTF Falls to Lowest Since July Amid Warm Weather

Front month TTF has fallen to the lowest since July with another extension of the warm forecast for Europe while gas in store remains high due to ongoing low storage withdrawals.

• TTF MAR 24 down -3.8% at 26.1€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.2% at 26.7€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -1.9% at 30.41€/MWh
• TTF SUM 25 down -1.4% at 28€/MWh
• Iran has commented that progress is being made to find a “diplomatic solution” to the situation in Gaza including the release of Israeli hostages, according to Bloomberg.
• The temperature forecast for NW and central Europe has turned warmer with above normal expected throughout most of the two week forecast period although could ease back closer to normal from around Feb 20.
• European natural gas storage levels are up near the previous five year range highs at 67.02% full on Feb 10 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 52.3% amid low withdrawal rates.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 347.2mcm/d and back in line with the average seen during Jan after a drop last week.
• European LNG sendout was at 324mcm/d on Feb 10 compared to an average of 341mcm/d over the previous week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 41.2mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 37.5mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 326k on Friday.