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TTF Higher on Lower Nord Stream Supply

NATURAL GAS

European gas prices continue to rally ahead of the further reduction in Nord Stream flows to just 20% of capacity from tomorrow announced by Gazprom yesterday.

  • TTF AUG 22 up 3.3% at 182.5€/MWh
  • Europe have managed to maintain storage injections thanks to high LNG imports, but storage targets could prove hard to meet due to the low pipeline supply from Russia. The EU commission meet today with plans for a voluntary reduction in gas consumption, which would be binding in event of an emergency.
  • A Goldman Sachs note suggested at 20% Nord Stream flows prices could reach 190€/MWh and a complete halt to lead to 210€/MWh. TTF front month spiked to 227€/MWh in early March at the start of the Ukraine war.
  • Nord Stream flows are today nominated at 61.2mcm/d but are due to fall to just 33mcm/d tomorrow. Russian flows through Ukraine are stable at 41.9mcm/d.
  • Strong Norwegian supply is also helping to balance the system with nominations today for 332.5mcm/d.
  • European gas storage is up to 66.7% full, with Germany at 66.35%, Italy at 70.5%, France at 75.5% and Netherlands at 62.8%.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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