TTF Higher with Support from Supply Risks

TTF front month edges higher today to remain in the recent range with upside risks from recent attacks on Ukraine gas infrastructure and increase buying interest in Asia weighed against steady supplies and high end of season storage levels.

• TTF APR 24 up 1.5% at 27.55€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.4% at 27.82€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 1% at 31.92€/MWh
• TTF SUM 25 up 1.1% at 30.5€/MWh
• Temperatures across much of Europe are forecast to remain above normal throughout most of the two week outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up at 347.1mcm/d today. Flows could dip again in early April amid planned outages at Karsto reducing capacity by 19.6mcm/d from Apr. 1.
• European LNG sendout increased on the day to 323mcm/d on Mar. 25 but remains just below the average seen through the month and well below the average of 413mcm/d in March 2023.
• European gas storage was at 59.03% full on Mar. 25 according to GIE after an increase in withdrawals but is still high compared to the seasonal five year average of 41.6%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at 61.0m/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was yesterday up at 349k.