TTF Holding Steady Amid Norwegian Supply Reduction

European gas is trading just above the lowest since 21 March of 39.5€/MWh seen last week with reduced output from Norway offset by strong LNG supplies and below normal demand. Industrial demand remains muted with EU targets to maintain consumption 15% below normal until next March although some sectors are showing some signs of a recovery.

• TTF MAY 23 up 0.2% at 40.24€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW European are expected to fall below normal this week before recovering to at or above normal towards the end of the month. Wind generation is also expected to decline towards the end of the month.
• Norwegian imports are today nominated down to 283.8mcm/d compared to around 340mcm/d at the start of April due to field and processing plant maintenance including outages at Troll and Kollsnes. Seasonal maintenance is expected to restrict gas availability into mid May.
• Net European LNG import flows are still strong despite reducing slightly from the high of 534mcm/d last week. Total European sendout was at 484mcm/d on 22 Apr.
• European gas storage is healthy at 57.6% on 22 Apr according to GIE data although below normal net injection rates have been seen so far in April.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today up to 40mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are up at 83.9mcm/d.