TTF Lacks Direction

TTF front month is lacking direction this morning with focus on the warm weather going into the first week of November and high storage levels, while supply uncertainty driven by any possible escalation in the Israel conflict is limiting is providing upside. The prospect of an Israeli ground offensive seems to be in doubt to help ease some upside pressure of further disruption to gas supplies from the region.

• TTF NOV 23 down -0.1% at 49.2€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.3% at 54.57€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.5% at 52.63€/MWh
• TTF Q124-NOV 23 down -0.3€/MWh at 5.22€/MWh
• The latest weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe until the end of the month and for the first week of November.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down to to 302.4mcm/d but with supplies Troll curbed for two days and from Oseberg due to process problems with an uncertain duration.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.63% full on 23 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%.
• LNG flows to North West Europe were at 252.95mcm/d on 23 October, up by 52% from the 30-day moving average.
• Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are at 67.7mcm/d today.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday rose back up to 226.67k.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
• The US LNG netback to Europe is currently $12.22/MMBtu in December, from $12.21/MMBtu yesterday. The US LNG netback to Asia is currently $13.39/MMBtu for December, up from $12.99/MMBtu.
  • JKM Nov 23 up 2.5% at 17.84$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.5$/mmbtu at 2.65$/mmbtu