TTF Lower with Strong Supplies, LNG Risks and Mixed Weather

TTF is falling back from gains yesterday with strong supplies weighed against LNG supply risks and a mixed weather forecast.

• TTF DEC 23 down -2.1% at 47.11€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -1.6% at 48.99€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.5% at 46.95€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -1.7% at 50.62€/MWh
• EU lawmakers have once again called for the bloc to outlaw imports of Russian LNG and to close loopholes in existing sanctions although there are no signs of an EU wide agreement soon. Disruption to LNG supply remains an upside price risk with current Qatar LNG maintenance and the cancellation of a cargo from Gorgon LNG in Australia.
• European LNG sendout was at 436mcm/d on 8 Nov compared to an average of 388mcm/d in the first week on the month. Floating LNG storage remains high despite a slight dip in the last 10 days with around 25% of all volumes located around Europe.
• The latest weather forecast for NW Europe shows above normal temperatures next week after a brief cold spell this weekend. The forecast for the second week of the outlook is showing temperatures closer to normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are still near strong up at 343.2mcm/d today but will fall over the week with an Oseberg outage now expected on 11-14 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels edged slightly lower on 8 Nov to 99.57% full according to GIE data after the first net withdrawal of the winter on 7 Nov. The five year average storage levels is around 89.9% at this time of year.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are slightly higher up to 50.6mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday up slightly to 269k.