TTF Opens Higher Amid Global LNG Supply Risks

TTF has opened higher this morning with ongoing concern for global LNG supplies with the potential for strikes at facilities in Australia. Front month TTF reached a high of 43.5€/MWh mid last week before easing back with no actual changes in LNG supply yet.

• TTF SEP 23 up 4.8% at 36.99€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 3.8% at 50.9€/MWh
• Talks are ongoing and further negotiations scheduled for 15 Aug in attempts to stop the threat of strikes potentially impacting about 10% of global LNG supplies. Australia's labour regulator has cleared the way for strike action at Chevron's Wheatstone platform, if workers decide to proceed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated today at 332.7mcm/d and in line with levels seen last week ahead of an expected drop later this month amid further maintenance works. Several field including Troll and Ormen Lange are expecting more capacity reductions from the end of this week.
• Total European gas storage is gradually rising towards the EU pre winter target with gas in store at 89.09% full on a 12 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 75.1%.
• LNG sendout to Europe remains below levels seen this time last year and has fallen back below 300mcm/d after a small pick up early last week. The recent surge in TTF has pushed near term spreads back in favour of US LNG supplies to Europe over Asia.
• Temperature forecasts in Europe are still showing above normal across Europe throughout most of the two week outlook.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are just slightly down at 41.3mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 64.4mcm/d.