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TTF Rallies with Market Sensitive to Supply Risks

NATGAS

TTF front month has rallied back into positive territory on the day to reach just above the high from Friday at €33.68/MWh but with no clear market driver.

  • The market remains wary of supply risks as Europe looks to slowly build natural gas stores ahead of next winter.
  • Warm weather boosting demand in Asia and an active Atlantic hurricane season forecast are upside risks to LNG supplies to Europe.
  • The TTF Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread has narrowed since mid May suggesting a tighter market although is relatively stable so far today. The spike in near term prices due to Norwegian supply disruption last week highlighted the market sensitivity to supply outages.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered to 328.6mcm/d today with the repairs to the Sleipner Riser Platform complete. Flows are however still restricted by an outage at the Visund field, reducing capacity by 15.4mcm/d until June 17.
    • TTF JUL 24 up 1.2% at 33.49€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.2% at 33.9€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.3% at 37.89€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.9% at 35.12€/MWh

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