TTF Resumes Trend Higher Amid Warm Weather and Norway Outages

TTF front month is resuming the move higher having trended up from a low of around 23€/MWh in early June with a record high aggregate volume of TTF futures contracts traded in the month amid volatile trading. Norway maintenance, LNG competition from Asia and warm weather is offsetting healthy storage and low demand.

• TTF AUG 23 up 5% at 38.97€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 2.5% at 53.25€/MWh
• Pipeline imports from Norway are today at 251.7mcm/d as capacity reduction at Kollsnes ease and as Norne resumes however works at Oseberg have been extended until 10 July.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to increase back above normal later this week and hold above normal into the second week of the outlook.
• European LNG sendout averaged around 360mcm/d last week with imports to NW Europe still just above the flows seen this time last year despite the trend lower since late April.
• Total European storage remains on track to refill to the EU target level before the end of the summer despite below normal injection rates. Gas in store was up to 77.5% full on 1 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 61.95%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.1mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 64.5mcm/d.