TTF Rising to Highest Since Feb Amis Supply Risks

TTF front month has risen to the highest since Feb boosted by European gas supply risks and cooler weather next week. Upside has been driven by geopolitical tensions and the halt to the Tamar gas field, the Baltic pipeline leak due to potential sabotage and Australia LNG strike risks with talks continuing on Monday despite some progress.

• TTF NOV 23 up 4.7% at 55.5€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 5.1% at 59.18€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 5% at 56.75€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast still shows temperatures in NW and central Europe dropping below normal in the coming days after the warm first half of the month.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated similar to yesterday at 324.2mcm/d. Supplies are still curtailed by between 15-25mcm/d this month due to outages at Oseberg, Troll and Kvitebjorn.
• European natural gas storage is up to 97.34% full on 11 Oct according to GIE data and back above the five year range high amid steady injections this week. The five year average is 89.1%.
• LNG net import flows are estimate at 341.6mcm/d on 11 Oct according to Bloomberg and roughly in line with supplies seen early this week.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today estimated up to 63.9mcm/d today.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes stayed strong up at 401k contracts yesterday.