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TTF Spreads Hold Steady as Front Month Reverses Earlier Gains


TTF time spreads remain stable as front month has reversed earlier gains back towards flat on the day as the market assesses the risk of lower supply due to the conflict in Israel against low demand and high storage levels. The decline follows the move in the wider energy complex with no signs yet that the Israel ground offensive has caused an escalation of the conflict to the wider Middle East region.

  • Another key upside risk for this winter remains cold weather in Europe and Asia however there is currently little sign of below normal temperatures in either region. The Q1 2024 TTF contract is maintaining a premium over the Nov23 contract at around 4.2Є/MWh today but is below a high of just over 7€/MWh a week ago.
  • The Q1 2025 -Q1 2024 spread is holding around 1.5€/MWh with supplies largely expected to remain tight next year with limited new global LNG supplies due online until 2025 and beyond.
    • TTF NOV 23 down -0.3% at 50.4€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -0.3% at 54.65€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -0.7% at 52.15€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.7% at 55.25€/MWh
    • TTF Q124-NOV 23 down 0€/MWh at 4.25€/MWh
    • TTF Q125-TTF Q124 up 0.3€/MWh at 1.58€/MWh

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