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TTF Supported by Supply Risks Despite Slightly Faster Nyhamna Ramp Up

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The ramp up in available gas from the Norwegian Nyhamna gas processing plant is expected to progress at a faster pace than initial planned according to the latest Gassco update.

  • The Nyhamna capacity reduction is set to reduce from 79.8mcm/d today to 34.8mcm/d tomorrow compared to the earlier expectation of 44.8mcm/d for tomorrow.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 273.8mcm/d but should start to increase with the return of capacity tomorrow.
  • The ongoing planned works at Visund with a reduction capacity of 10.4mcm/d has been extended by one day to June 9, according to Gassco.
  • TTF front month has settled back near to the lows from last week but is edging higher with some support from competition for LNG cargoes with Asia and with ongoing curtailed US LNG export feedgas flows.
  • TTF second month implied volatility is back down towards the lows from mid March at 58% today after a jump higher to 67.1% earlier this week.
  • The TTF Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread has narrowed driven by the recent near term supply concerns up from -€6.34/MWh on May 15 to the narrowest since March at around -€4.4/MWh today.
    • TTF JUL 24 up 1.4% at 33.82€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.3% at 34.17€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.6% at 37.85€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.3% at 34.93€/MWh
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The ramp up in available gas from the Norwegian Nyhamna gas processing plant is expected to progress at a faster pace than initial planned according to the latest Gassco update.

  • The Nyhamna capacity reduction is set to reduce from 79.8mcm/d today to 34.8mcm/d tomorrow compared to the earlier expectation of 44.8mcm/d for tomorrow.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 273.8mcm/d but should start to increase with the return of capacity tomorrow.
  • The ongoing planned works at Visund with a reduction capacity of 10.4mcm/d has been extended by one day to June 9, according to Gassco.
  • TTF front month has settled back near to the lows from last week but is edging higher with some support from competition for LNG cargoes with Asia and with ongoing curtailed US LNG export feedgas flows.
  • TTF second month implied volatility is back down towards the lows from mid March at 58% today after a jump higher to 67.1% earlier this week.
  • The TTF Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread has narrowed driven by the recent near term supply concerns up from -€6.34/MWh on May 15 to the narrowest since March at around -€4.4/MWh today.
    • TTF JUL 24 up 1.4% at 33.82€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.3% at 34.17€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.6% at 37.85€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.3% at 34.93€/MWh