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TTF Surges Again Amid Supply Risks and Warm Weather

NATURAL GAS

European gas market volatility continues with the risk that further civil unrest in Russia could impact future supplies after the short lived uprising over the weekend. Front month TTF has this morning regained some of the losses seen late last week but is still below the high of last week of just over 40€/MWh. A drop in LNG imports, ongoing restricted pipeline supplies from Norway and warm weather across Europe are adding to upside price risks.

    • TTF JUL 23 up 11.2% at 36.16€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 7.9% at 53.77€/MWh
  • Pipeline imports from Norway are today at 232.1mcm/d amid ongoing field and processing plants outages including at Nyhamna, Ormen Lange, Aasta Hansteen, Oseberg and Troll.
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe have dipped from last week reaching near to normal in the coming days before recovering back above normal again into the start of July.
  • European LNG imports have fallen from over 400mcm/d early last week down to around 360mcm/d late last week with spot deliveries to NW Europe and Italy the lowest in four weeks according to Bloomberg. Maintenance works are reducing sendout from Montoir LNG and Fos Tonkin LNG until 2 July.
  • Total European storage levels were up to 75.78% full on 24 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 59.5% as injection rates continue below normal.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 60.9mcm/d.

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