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TURKEY: JP Morgan Maintain 42.5% Year-End Inflation Forecast

TURKEY
  • JP Morgan say headline inflation will fall sharply towards 51.6% in August and 42.5% by year-end. They assume there will be no utility price hikes this year, while leading indicators signal a slowdown in domestic demand in 3Q.
  • They say they will monitor to what extent real TRY appreciation and a slowdown in the economic activity will offset the natural gas price hike this month coupled with the effects of automatic interim wage hikes for pensioners and civil servants.
  • JP Morgan maintain their end-2024 inflation forecast at 42.5% and end-2025 inflation forecast at 25%. They believe risks around their inflation forecasts are balanced.
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