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TURKEY: Monthly Inflation Eases Marginally to +2.88% in October

TURKEY
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  • Turkey’s consumer prices rose 48.58% y/y (Est: +48.30%) in October versus +49.38% in September, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. The month-on-month figure – the central bank’s preferred gauge – rose 2.88% (Est: +2.66%) compared to +2.97% in September.
  • The statistics office noted that the ‘transportation’ sub-component showed the lowest monthly increase with -0.54% while ‘clothing and footwear’ showed the highest monthly increase at +14.32%. Looking at core inflation, prices rose 47.75% y/y (Est: +47.80%) versus +49.10% the month prior.
  • The CBRT’s communication has consistently pointed to an easing in both the underlying inflation trend and inflation expectations as prerequisites for the beginning of the easing cycle. Broadly, analysts are expecting the first rate cut to come in Q1-2025 when the scale of administered price adjustments at the start of the year and the size of the minimum wage hike will be realised.
  • Note that CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan will deliver the year’s final quarterly outlook on inflation on November 8. Officials are targeting 38% inflation at the end of the year, though this is seen as an optimistic outlook by markets.
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  • Turkey’s consumer prices rose 48.58% y/y (Est: +48.30%) in October versus +49.38% in September, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. The month-on-month figure – the central bank’s preferred gauge – rose 2.88% (Est: +2.66%) compared to +2.97% in September.
  • The statistics office noted that the ‘transportation’ sub-component showed the lowest monthly increase with -0.54% while ‘clothing and footwear’ showed the highest monthly increase at +14.32%. Looking at core inflation, prices rose 47.75% y/y (Est: +47.80%) versus +49.10% the month prior.
  • The CBRT’s communication has consistently pointed to an easing in both the underlying inflation trend and inflation expectations as prerequisites for the beginning of the easing cycle. Broadly, analysts are expecting the first rate cut to come in Q1-2025 when the scale of administered price adjustments at the start of the year and the size of the minimum wage hike will be realised.
  • Note that CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan will deliver the year’s final quarterly outlook on inflation on November 8. Officials are targeting 38% inflation at the end of the year, though this is seen as an optimistic outlook by markets.