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Turkish 5Y CDS Eyes March Highs

TURKEY
  • Turkey’s 5Y Credit default swap has been gaining upside momentum since last week’s FOMC meeting and local CPI print and is now approaching the March highs marked at 704.912. the 5Y CDS is up +20bp today at 684.88, having accelerated higher since the start of the month.
  • The combination of higher energy prices, stronger USD, unsustainable monetary policy (also diverging from Fed), deeply negative real rates and tightening external conditions set against >60% in foreign denominated debt continue to create risks to the Turkish economy.
  • Turkey’s balance of payments has also been deteriorating in the past few months with the trade deficit rising sharply to $8.2bn in March. All the above factors continue top exert upside pressure on the 5Y CDS with little possibility of a U-turn on policy from the CBRT.


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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