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Turkish Assets Continue Recent Trends Ahead of CBRT Meeting

TURKEY
  • 5Y Turkish credit default swaps have declined for the third consecutive session, though remain within relatively close proximity of August’s highs. 5Y CDS peaked in May ahead of the Presidential elections and have been falling steadily since. Ministers said in July that they expect this trend to continue ahead of the announcement of the Medium-Term Economic Plan in September, though they have risen close to 40bps this month.
  • Elsewhere, Turkish equities have been rallying since the elections. The benchmark Borsa Istanbul index recorded a fresh cycle high yesterday, with bulls now eyeing further gains toward the 8000.00 handle. The banking sector sub-index has been volatile in the past 2 weeks. It recently recorded a fresh high after Moody’s upgraded their outlook of the Turkish banking sector to ‘Stable’, though has declined ~10% from that peak shortly after the 14-day RSI entered overbought territory. The 14-day RSI of the main index sits at 69.00, though has predominantly been above the 70.00 level since July.
  • Recent changes to macroprudential measures have had little effect on the USDTRY exchange rate, which last deals around the 27.20 level. Sell-side desks note that local banks remain actively on the offer in USDTRY as the CBRT remain on their tightening course to further rein in lira depreciation and inflation.
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