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Twist Flattening, Off Bests, Focus On BoE & Chair Powell’s Testimony

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGB futures curve has twist flattened (YM -3.0 & XM +2.0) with pricing notably below the highs observed earlier in Sydney trading. Given the relatively light local calendar, it appears that the trading activity has been influenced by the weakening observed in US tsys during the Asia-Pac trading session.

  • Cash ACGBs are 2bp cheaper to 2bp richer with the 3/10 curve flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp wider at +23bp.
  • The 3s10s swap curve twist flattens with EFPs little changed.
  • The bills strip bear flattens with pricing -6 to -1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 4-6bp firmer for meetings beyond September. Terminal cash rate expectations sit at 4.57%.
  • The local calendar is light tomorrow with Judo Bank PMI Preliminary data as the highlight. The next major data is the release of the CPI Monthly for May next Wednesday.
  • Ahead of that, market participants are likely to be watching global bond yields as they navigate the BoE policy decision and Fed Chair Powell’s reappearance at Senate Banking Committee later today.
  • The US is also slated to release weekly Jobless Claims, May Chicago Fed Activity Index and June Kansas City Fed Index.
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