BOC SAYS DOESN'T NEED TO ALTER PATH OF QT RIGHT NOW

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Twist Flatter With Payrolls Looming

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade twist flatter, ranging from 2.5bp cheaper (2s) to 1bp richer (20s and 30s) with a pivot at 10s. Thursday's renewed regional bank worry seems to have moderated, with most still seeing the NYC Bancorp issues as fairly contained.
  • 2s10s of -35bp (-3bps on the day) touches lows since Jan 11 prior to US CPI, with highs since then of circa -15bps.
  • TYH4 has kept to narrow ranges overnight on decent volumes of 330k, and at 112-23 (-05+) sits in the middle of yesterday’s range which saw a high of 113-06+ on further oscillations in regional bank concerns. In clearing 112-26+ (Jan 12 high), it’s exposed a key resistance at 113-12 (Dec 27 high), whilst to the downside sits support at 111-24+ (20-day EMA).
  • Data firmly headlines today’s docket, highlighted with a particularly influential payrolls report after Powell raised the bar to a first cut in March, but also followed by final January prints for the U.Mich consumer survey and factory orders.
  • Data: Payrolls Jan (0830ET), U.Mich Jan final (1000ET), Factory orders Jan (1000ET)
  • There is no Fedspeak scheduled for today, the first day with the media blackout lifted. Powell is currently first to speak on Sunday – see STIR bullet - but don't rule out pop-up appearances.
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