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TY Respects Support, Fed Pricing Steadies Around 75bp Of '24 Cuts

US TSYS

Tsys coil in a narrow range.

  • TYM4 respects yesterday’s low despite a couple of tests, last +0-02 at 110-08, range of 110-06 to 110-10+. Volume running at a healthy 277K.
  • The Mar 1 low sits just below (110-05+). A break there would expose the bear trigger and Feb 23 low (109-25+).
  • Cash Tsy yields are flat to 1.5bp lower.
  • FOMC-dated OIS has stabilised around ~75bp of ’24 cuts, although that level was breached yesterday.
  • The 75bp mark lines up with the median dot in the Fed’s Dec ’23 SEP. It won’t take much to move the median dot in next week’s SEP. Expect our preview of next week’s FOMC decision later today.
  • Preliminary UoM sentiment data (watch inflation exp. components) provides the main U.S. release today.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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