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Tyrowicz & Kotecki Suggest NBP Looks Set For Premature Easing, Campaign Matters In Focus

POLAND
  • NBP's Joanna Tyrowicz and Ludwik Kotecki gave a tell-all interview to Money.pl in which they accused most Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members of incompetence and lack of professionalism, pointed to a highly contentious nature of MPC meetings and reiterated their accusations that policymakers do not have sufficient access to staff analyses (e.g. when it comes to changes to the forecasting models). Tyrowicz warned that the MPC looks set to lower interest rates this year after "prematurely ending the tightening cycle last year" and said that we should "do away with this single-digit gibberish" and "the false magic of round figures," referring to the importance assigned by her dovish colleagues to inflation getting below +10% Y/Y. Kotecki said that lowering rates at this stage would be a mistake, as the latest NBP macroeconomic projection does not give any scope for monetary easing yet.
  • The main opposition Civic Platform said that they were proposing "the largest tax cut in history," after tabling a bill raising the tax-free allowance to PLN60,000. The party talked up its proposal at a press conference yesterday, unveiling a special calculator allowing to check the imputed change in one's net income. The pivot in the party's rhetoric towards lowering taxes is seen as an attempt to capture some of the electoral base of the far-right Confederation, which comes third in opinion polls and campaigns on the platform of libertarian macroeconomic policy.
  • DGP reports that the main opposition parties may finalise their joint list of candidates for the Senate election by the end of the month. A source told the newspaper that the parties still need to select candidates for a handful of constituencies. Talks were delayed as the Civic Platform sought a reshuffle of the distribution of seats based on more recent opinion polls, but reportedly the review did not happen.
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