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UBS Bring Forward SNB Rate Hike Call

  • Following the change to their ECB call, they now see SNB hiking in December this year.
  • They see the SNB raising rates by 25bps (first rate hike since 2007), brought forward from their prior call of 25bps rate rise in December 2023.
  • Rising longer-term inflation expectations, a tight labour market and an expected depreciation for the CHF should result in medium-term CPI forecasts rising this year.
  • An earlier ECB hike prompts UBS to expected the SNB to follow in order to rebuild some of the interest rate differential, at least temporarily.
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