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UBS Clearly Below CPI Consensus But With Upside Risks

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS are below consensus for core CPI with 0.32% M/M (cons 0.4), and that’s pushed up from their nowcast of 0.28% M/M, although see risks to the upside as has been the case in recent months and wouldn’t be surprised to see core CPI anywhere between 0.23-0.44% M/M.
  • They see the step down from the past couple of months being led by CPI rents (OER 0.61% M/M), which may finally be starting to see the effect of slowing market rents over the past year and half.
  • Additionally, prices for core goods ex transportation and core services ex housing rents should resume a more moderate pace amid consumer import prices trending down and supplier delivery times decreasing.
  • Risks to the upside include apparel prices (Feb and Sep tend to have large seasonal price increases) and transportation services prices (which have been rising quickly of late).
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