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UBS Reiterate $125/bbl Brent Call

OIL

Saudi Arabia’s comments this week that OPEC+ may cut output to tame market volatility signals there’s a desire to keep oil prices above $90/bbl, according to a note from UBS today.

  • UBS reiterated its forecast that Brent will likely rebound to $125/bbl over the coming months due to tight supply.
  • Spare capacity is below 2m b/d
  • Ending sales from the strategic oil reserves of OECD countries will remove more than 1m b/d of supply from November.
  • While demand in OECD nations has been lackluster, it remains strong in non-OECD countries, which account for 54% of the total demand
  • EU plans to cut its dependence on Russian crude and products will likely cause disruptions, with imports from the OPEC+ producer at 2.8m b/d in July

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