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UBS suggest positioning for a dovish...........>

KIWI
KIWI: UBS suggest positioning for a dovish repricing of the RBNZ & lower NZD.
- The list of headwinds for the NZD keeps growing: 1) domestic momentum
continues to weaken; 2) price pressures remain lacklustre; while 3) the ongoing
softness in the global economy is also a key downside risks to domestic growth.
Despite these developments, markets are pricing c. 20bps of cuts for the August
meeting, and less than two full cuts by end-2019. We see this as too
conservative vs fundamentals from a risk-reward perspective; and, as such, we
see risks skewed towards a more dovish
repricing of the RBNZ and a weaker NZD.

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