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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
IDR
USD/IDR sits at 15718 in recent dealings, the pair unable to sustain recent moves sub 15700. Recent highs of 15740 remain intact, while the 20-day EMA continues to trend higher and sits back at 15570.
- USD/IDR looks too high relative to the recent pull back in US real yields (10yr back to 2.29%). However, the divergence is not large, and global equity sentiment is working the other way. Indonesian 5yr CDS has ticked higher, last near 96bps, but is below recent highs above 100bps.
- Offshore outflows from local bonds continued last week (-$207mn), more than offsetting modest net equity inflows (+$17.3mn).
- Coming up shortly is the September trade balance data. The market looks for a move lower in the trade surplus to $2349mn, from $3210mn prior. This fits with a lower terms of trade backdrop in terms of the Citi index, see the chart below.
- Exports are expected to remain weak at -13.7% y/y, albeit up from -21.21% prior. Imports are forecast at -5.0% y/y, from -14.77% prior.
- Later this week, on Thursday, we get the BI decision. The consensus expects a steady 5.75% outcome.
Fig 1: Indonesia Trade Balance & Citi Indonesia ToT Proxy
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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